Canada faces brutal, unjustified tariffs from the US. Trump first announced 25% blanket tariffs on Canadian goods to begin in February, and then granted a reprieve of one month. The blanket tariffs will start in March. Trump also announced 25% steel and aluminum tariffs (which are disproportionately targeted at Canada) which will begin in early March. Trump further announced 25% automotive tariffs to begin in April.
Terror is an extreme, intense, or overwhelming fear: Trump is intentionally terrifying the people of Canada.
Trump has a goal in mind, which is to make Canada the 51st State. He has promised to use economic warfare to do so. Trump repeatedly says that the American economy needs nothing from Canada, yet annexing Canada is Trump's singular obsession.
Canada has replied to Trump's reign of terror by threatening dollar-for-dollar tariffs. Donald Trump does not care. In fact, reciprocal tariffs play right into Trump's hand - they provide an excuse to visit more brutal economic violence upon Canada. In other words, reciprocal tariffs inspire no reciprocal terror and only serve to empower the bully.
Then what can Canada even do?
Trump is striking now because his advisors have told him that Canada is in a tough spot, and they're not wrong. Prime Minister Trudeau is a lame duck. In early spring, however, Canada will have a new Prime Minister. That Prime Minister will either form government or lead the Liberal party into a federal election. It seems likely that, even if there is to be an election, the new Prime Minister will enjoy some temporary latitude from opposition parties to implement non-partisan emergency measures to address Trump's terrorizing tariffs.
The current Canadian message to Americans about tariffs is, at best, a soft sell. The PM and many Premiers have appeared on American TV. Ontario ran a commercial during the Superbowl. All 13 Premiers visited Washington, D.C. The language of these messages is generally weak. Threats are limited and implicit, with a few colourful exceptions (e.g. Doug Ford: "You can't let someone hit you over the head with a sledgehammer without hitting them back twice as hard"). Current messages largely appeal to Americans on the basis that Canadians can help in the new American renaissance. Greed can indeed be a powerful motivator - as can altruism - but the emotion of fear is almost always more effective.
Governor Andy Beshear, a Democrat Governor, is trying to terrify his state's citizens: Gov. Andy Beshear: Trump's Tariffs "Will Hit the American People Hard" | Amanpour and Company. The Governor draws a clear connection between Trump's trade war against Canada and the inevitable result of large job losses for Americans. The most effective public service announcements terrify people with the reality that comes with bad choices, like driving drunk or being dangerous at work.
Because of Canada's relatively small size, any trade measures must be asymmetric. As discussed earlier, dollar-for-dollar tariffs are necessary but ineffective. The psychological impact of reciprocal tariffs will be limited as America's extraordinary economic strength will make dealing with the impacts far too easy.
Nevertheless, there are many peaceful, legal, and effective ways that Canada could exact costs that sidestep Trump's transactional (or anti-transactional) negotiating style. The staffers of leading Liberal contenders (Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland), the Prime Minister-in-waiting (Pierre Poilievre), and third party leader Jagmeet Singh are presumably working overtime to come up with ideas. Here are just a few:
Some of these ideas seem, or are, harsh. It is also important to remember that half of Americans are already on Canada's side. It will be very important to have clear offramps for any strategies in the event that Trump backs down. Further, showing kindess to others is important, especially when it's difficult. Americans are our brothers and sisters. But kindness does not mean being a pushover or letting bullies be bullies.
Today's Canadian cultural zeitgeist is odious toward the idea of joining the US as the 51st State. Americanization is not a personal preference but creativity and openness to new ideas is essential. Doug Ford proposes 'Fortress Am-Can'. Kevin O'Leary wants an economic bloc with a common currency. Trump, however, seems unlikely to accept any configuration that does not add another star to the American flag.
Good brokers present all serious offers to their clients in an objective manner. In this spirit, Canadians are confused as to why the grand dealmaker has not presented any offer to the Canadian people. Canadians are surely listening - this is not a joke - with bated breath. If Trump thinks that becoming a state is an adequate offer on its own, then Canada will remain sovereign for Trump's four years regardless of the economic pain visited upon the country. If, however, Trump presented an offer including certain sweeteners, he might create enough momentum to get past Canadian political elites' opposition (if Canada were to become a state, those elites would lose a lot of power so of course they are deathly opposed) and begin to affect actual opinion. Just two sweeteners (American citizenship and dollar-for-dollar conversion of personal assets from CAD to USD) are enough to convince 30% of all Canadians and 43% of young adult Canadians to join the US. More thoughts to come.